In another closing of the week with strong economic contrasts, yesterday the blue dollar broke a new record and closed at $386.
So far in the first month of this year, the US currency at that rate has accumulated $40 and, although the marginal market does not operate significant volumes, its value is significant for setting the new prices in the contracts. For this reason, it is expected that the pressure on prices in shelves will intensify, especially in food, a sector in which, in addition, the drought is hitting hard due to the possibility of shortages in wheat and beef, for example.
Yesterday, the week also closed with increases in financial prices. And the bullish trend is expected to continue into the last business days of this month. In the market they maintain that the increases are explained by the delay of the exchange rate with respect to inflation.
In the economic cabinet they insist that they will manage to tame the increases and leave the monthly index around 4%. The verifications of the private consultancies continue to show little possibility that this month will end with values similar to the 5% of December and, instead, are close to 6%. The imminent start of February will add more temperature, with increases in food, rates and fuel, among others.
Thus the accounts this week the blue recorded its fourth consecutive record and accumulated a rise of $10 in the week, while in the previous week it had climbed another $8. The gap with the official wholesale exchange rate stood at 107.8 %, the biggest difference since August of last year.
In addition, due to the few settlements in the export market, the Central Bank (BCRA) attended the exchange market yesterday with 26 million. The monetary authority sold almost US$211 million this week and the negative balance in January was US$76 million.
In the Central they look at it differently; They emphasize that at this time last year sales were for 136 million and that, in addition, this January there were fewer liquidations of the cereal complex 48 business hours after the end of the month.
Also yesterday and in this context, Economy strengthened financing for twice the maturities scheduled for the end of the month, although at high rates. It obtained almost 223 billion pesos in the last tender of the month when it had to face almost 107 billion pesos.
From the Palacio de Hacienda information that the offers received in the bidding exceeded $500 billion.
But in the market, sources close to Economy observed that although all public titles are rising; For now, those in pesos do more than in dollars and that is why there are so many movements in the exchange rates.
It is when the rise of the financiers is different due to price increases at different rates than when it is due to the sale and auction of titles.
On the other hand, yesterday the Buenos Aires stock market ended its bullish streak and fell an average of almost 3 percent, while shares on Wall Street and bonds in dollars operated unevenly.
The S&P Merval stock indicator of Bolsa y Mercados Argentinos (BYMA) cut the rise and fell an average of 2.75% to 254,295 units, after five rounds of growth.
Less optimistic are other perspectives that point to the impact that the movements in the blue dollar will have and its transfer to prices. Especially since the Government needs a first with falling inflation to meet the annual goal of 60% that was projected in the Budget.
That means that in the first six months of this year the indicator should be 30%, but many consultants are already warning that between January and March it will accumulate 17%.
Since the beginning of the month, strong rises in key foods such as fruits and vegetables have been anticipated. and in wheat and beef in this case due to the combination of dryness that led the Government to announce a package of emergency measures for the countryside. These initiatives will be announced next Wednesday but, for example, the Rosario Stock Exchange already computes losses in the sector of between 10 and 15 billion dollars. The year is just beginning. but their numbers accumulate tensions.
Economy reinforcement plus financing
PR
The Treasury faced the last tender in January, by obtaining financing of $222,984 million, in which maturities of $106,074 million were faced.
From the Palacio de Hacienda information that the offers received in the bidding exceeded $500 billion.
“We had offers for 515 billion pesos, we accepted offers for 200 billion pesos, we doubled the maturities and, in addition, we obtained rates below the secondary market. With a harmonious participation between common investment funds, provinces and the public sector, we managed to increase financing for the first of the National Public Sector”, highlighted the Minister of Economy, Sergio Massa. For his part, the Secretary of Finance, Eduardo Setti, also made a summary of the tenders of the month: “The Mecon strengthened a positive net financing of more than $200 billion in the first month of the year with a harmonious participation between banks, FCIs, provinces and the public sector, with lower rates than those of the secondary market”, making the most of lower rates and harmony in participation.
What is certain is that January ended with a positive net financing.
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