Due to a new clamp on the payment of imports, the UIA warned of more inflation

He renewed bottleneck in the import system triggered alarms in the manufacturing sector. Entrepreneurs driving the Argentine Industrial Union denounced, from new modificationsthe implementation of another exchange rate adjustment and even the start of a devaluation of the peso due to the drought of dollars in the Central Bank. The factory owners warned that more delays in SIRA payments will begin to be applied initially approved, with a delay que doubles the original margin and that could reach up to the year of differentiation, if the payments presented by the foreign trade system are intended to materialize in Dollars. If it is in yuan, there would be advantages in time and approval.

“They are coming out SIRA with deadlines that double the original planwith SMEs that have 90-day payment permits, which take it to 180. And large companies that must pay only in 360 days”, alerted one of the members of the board of directors of the UIA, in strict off the record scam PROFILE. The businessmen announced that the new format, not formally communicated to the entity, worsen the operating conditions of the factories and you generate mayor financial costa combo that promises to generate an impact on the prices of the gondolas.

Martín Guzmán reappeared and criticized the measures taken by Massa: “I would not have done it”

“We don’t communicate. We have to evaluate how much is the total reach, because They are carrying out the terms according to the size of the companies”, constitutes this medium another of the members of the manufacturing entity that closely follows the operations in foreign trade and the relationship with the Government. The same Thursday showed two opposite faces: until the early hours of the afternoon, in the entity, which concentrates the representation of the largest number of factories in the country, they had admitted that for a month the SIRA system became “heavy” again and that the tension in the production chain, although without paralysis alarm for the next few weeks; in the afternoon, the scene changed and the alarm went off.

yuan for everyone

The government asked companies that they change the format of their commercial transactions with the world: that go from dollar to yuan. That is why local banks began to look for alternatives to operate with RMB, which is the original denomination of the Chinese yuan, through the clear for that payment, whose correspondent in Argentina is in the hands of the ICBC bank. In the next few days, the first incorporation of a domestic entity could be completed to implement the payment of imports in that oriental currency. Although from the banks they maintain that the conditions are identical to the operations in dollars, the factories have another promise.

According to UIA sources, from the Ministry of Economy they promised to advance the payment of imports from large companies to 90 days, if the transactions are carried out in yuan. In the case of SMEs would lower the term from 90 to 60 days. Which implies a case diametrically opposed to trading in dollars. At this time, the Central Bank that leads Miguel Pesce account in your reserves with USD 5,000 million corresponding to the exchange with China. Massa pretends activate the almost USD 14,000 million remaining, of the USD 18,800 million agreed, to be used in foreign trade. That mission will be during his visit to Beijing at the end of the month, within the framework of the BRICS meeting. In return, The Asian giant pretends to avoid conversion to dollars and to consolidate its presence in the region with the yuan as the hard currency of commercial exchange.

Massa’s plans and his presidential dream: IMF, Brazil, yuan and more controls

However, the industrialists complained because imports that were rejected within the original deadlines originate from European countries and the United States, where payments in yuan are not accepted. As explained to this medium by market sources involved in foreign trade with the Asian giant, the conversion of the payment currency must have a prior agreement between the buyer and the seller to be able to establish According to the foreign trade specialist marcelo elizondo“Argentina concentrates imports in few origins. China, USD 17.5 billion; Brazil, USD 16,000 million; USA, USD 10.2 billion”. Between the three they explain 53% of total purchases to the world, while the other origins of imports generate much lower figures than those. Far away, in fourth place, is Germany, with USD 2.7 billion.

Higher costs, more inflation?

This scenario is argued by some companies to justify the supply patchyour sea due to lack of inputs for manufacturing, or before the fear of losing profitability at the time of repair products and when the importer payment. “This whole situation is happening to the resellers of inputs began to put the prices closer to the dollar counted with liquidation or to the tourist. That is transformed into new costs and prices push up inflation”, admitted the owner of a factory based in different provinces of the country.

If that presumption is confirmed, the CPI for May still awaits further pressurea scenario that would complicate electoral expectations Delaware sergio masa. The industrialists fear an acceleration of the inflationary rhythm, a deeper devaluation than the one administered by the drag pin and greater import restrictions that end with a drop in economic activity before the end of the year. in the factory house they have a back of four months to withstand a crisis of falling demandbut it was reserved for the arrival of a new government and a “ordering” of macroeconomic variablestied to the UN “growth plan” for the sector.

The reasons for the skyrocketing of the MEP dollar: tripping the loop with the financiers

Within this framework, at the UIA he pointed out with “concern” the growth of private commercial debt for importsthat accumulated only between 2022 and so far in 2023, around the $12 billion. They also warned about the “surprise” stretching of the exchange rate gap, before the departure of the official intervention. “You have to see if it is a strategy or it is because the dollar could start to loosen up and the devaluation is coming forward,” said a businessman in the sector.

Other technical sources consulted admitted that companies in the sector prepared to face a crisis that combines inflation and recession, which would deepen with measures from a new government, which would include devaluation and a sharp rise in prices that negatively impact consumption. “If behind these actions there is a development agenda, there is a back to overcome this situation,” said the source consulted. However, fear was installed yesterday before a anticipation of that scenario, but without political or electoral firepower to implement the development plan that the industrialists demand.

AM / DE