Inflation and reserves, the pending goals that go to March

Due to the dynamics that prices are taking so far this short month of February, nothing seems to indicate a downward streak in inflation and, above all, in food.

The strength of the BCRA reserves does not promise celebrations either. With the photo of these two indicators, the economic team chaired by Sergio Massa will have to play some strong card in March to appease the crucial inflationary expectations of the first quarter.

This is not about passing the review of the Fund, which will arrive in June, on the current stretch of the year. From the accumulated data of the first quarter, it will soon be possible to continue defending or not the annual inflation target of 60% which, in turn, from the official perspective functions as an anchor for the harsh 2023 parities.

Much more is at stake than the road to the presidential elections; what is at stake is the time needed to put the accounts in order next year.

In the first fifteen days of February, a short but very hot month in terms of its inflationary component, 6% inflation is anticipated. Especially hand in hand with food, where the increases in meat, the little success that is anticipated in the sector to the official plan to return 10% in purchases of beef cuts with card, the drought and the increases in fuels do not promise Inspiring descents in the gondolas. At least not price.

Movements in the exchange rate are not encouraging either. The Central Bank will have to get rid of almost 500 million dollars this week to support the blue at $377 and the Qatar dollar at almost $400. Only on Friday the BCRA sold 49 million dollars, and so far this month it is close to 1,000 million sales. It is the worst result since November and in the market they maintain that the drip would continue in the following days.

On turbulent days there were rumors and political tensions, as usually happens when the economy is stressed and the end of the month approaches. All this in a context of political movements that aim to order 2023 candidacies. Massa is always an option for the 2023 elections, although in his environment they continue to deny it.

In this context, in recent days, always in the rumors in the corridors of the Palace of Finance, the figure of the Secretary of Commerce, Matías Tombolini, has grown, who, curiously, has polished his look lately but has not been able to specify fines for Fair Prices or CFK’s sympathy, who never loved him too much.

Meanwhile, Massa shows management and continues to oil his political meetings with the governors. On Friday, without going any further, he opened with the governor of Misiones, Oscar Herrera Aguad, the Emergency Tea Program for 400 million pesos and another 100 million for hail.