The Government aspires, with more expressions of wishes than with data, that the May inflation be lower than the 8.4% registered in April.
To achieve that goal, in the midst of a growing monetary issuecontinues betting on the same recipe: put up with exchange controls based on agreements with mass consumption companies and apply sanctions for non-compliance, which are becoming more and more frequent.
On the consultancy side, the estimates go in the opposite direction, with several analysts who expect 9% and several that do not rule out that the Consumer Price Index is close to double digits, something that has not happened since May 2002.
Where are the main increases expected? Most critically, the food. The LCG consultancy, which measures the products of the basic basket on a weekly basis, obtained 4.8% only in the first 15 days.
Redrado: “Controlling prices and dollarizing are not concrete solutions”
They will also hit hard gas and electricity rates, with increases between 25% and 30% and transport, which expect increases of 15% in the subway and 8% in trains and buses. Hotels and restaurants, driven by the Pre-Tripwill bring another significant increase.
On that train, numbers are already beginning to appear that contradict the optimism of the Government. In addition to the already mentioned case of LCG, there are consultants such as Analytica that forecast an inflation rate of 8.9%; EcoGo, the consultancy led by Marina Dal Pogetto, expect 9%; for the Libertad y Progreso Foundation, it will be between 9.1 and 9.4%.
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