Tomorrow the markets will begin trading the last days of January with all the expectations set in the direction that the purchase of the blue dollar will have in Argentina, which will close last Friday with a new all-time high of $386.
Different economists express themselves on the matter, not only to explain what happens with the rise in the currency, but also what could happen in the coming days.
Claudio Caprarulo, director of the Analytica consultancy, said that “a rebound in the blue dollar was expected in these months of the year,” especially taking into account the increase in demand for summer vacations.
In the same sense, Juan Delich, from EcoGo, said that “the lower supply of blue dollars in January tends to be a specific seasonal issue”, but not long-lasting: “It is usually offset by a stronger initial demand for pesos due to vacations in the country”.
For María Castiglioni, director of CyT Asesores Económicos, it is not just a seasonal issue. Also “the excess of pesos in the economy in relation to demand is combined with the benchmark of the card dollar, or Qatar dollar (which is the one that is applied to consumptions over US$300)”. To this is added, she affirmed, “the lower offer in the blue dollar market by tourists due to the implementation of the special exchange rate for expenses with international cards.”
Joe Lupieri, from Epyca Consultores, agrees that the measures taken by the Government also played a role in the historic increase. Particularly, those of “debt repurchase and rate hike for banks”.
Delich referred to the same thing when assuring that the repurchase of bonds “affects the price of the blue dollar because there are many people who buy financial dollars, withdraw it and try to sell it to the blue market.”
Regarding the future, some economists prefer to be cautious and others made long-term forecasts. Caprarulo assured that it will be necessary to be attentive to the signals from the Government regarding the exchange market, especially “in a context in which the drought is worrisome for the dynamics of the external front and the inflow of dollars.” But also with “the net disbursements that will have to be made to the International Monetary Fund (IMF)” and with the stocks, which if they continue to deepen, “will go against economic activity.”
The expectations, for some specialists, are not very encouraging.
The economist Salvador Di Stéfano assured that new increases can be expected and that what is certain regarding the dollar is that “when it goes up, it is almost certain that it does not go down.”
For his part, Alfredo Romano, president of the Romano Group, predicted that “the next 90 days will be very complex.”
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