The data provided by Alberto Fernández under the magnifying glass of economists

This Wednesday the president Alberto Fernandez gave his fourth speech at the 141st opening of Ordinary Sessions of Congress in which I speak more than an hour and a half in front of Parliament.

In the purely economic aspect, he reviewed the key indicators of his management, and although he stressed that the Government is “aimed at reducing inflationHe avoided giving figures, while clarifying that the objective is to reduce it “without increasing poverty levels”.

Fiscal Balance, Collection, Agricultural Sector and Foreign Tradewere some of the axes of the president’s speech Fernandez that were analyzed by the experts consulted by PROFILE.

Opening of ordinary sessions without delving into inflation and with chicanas about co-participation

In some points chosen by the Head of State to present a balance of his management, the analysts agreed that those positive balances presented to Parliament this Wednesday was caused by an exogenous fact: the war in Ukraine.

The data under the magnifying glass of the experts

on the efiscal balance, the president of the Argentines said in his address: “Let it be clear: We do not need the IMF to know what we must achieve with the prosecutor. We cannot persist with policies that generate deficits in our public accounts. Because, even if it is not feasible to achieve that goal From overnight, fiscal balance must be our horizon”.

“First of all, fiscal balance is not an objective, as they propose, medium or long term but short because the fiscal deficit generates microeconomic distortions as a greater demand for amplified assets in foreign currency; shorten contract termsthe inter-temporal horizon of individual physical or legal decision is reduced, investment projects are left aside and local financial assets are no longer in demand”, explained the economist Natalia Motil in statements to this medium.

tax collection

“The gain has 29 consecutive months of growth above the price variation. This is due to economic growth. to the changes in the tax structure and the institutional strengthening of the AFIP”, he asserted Alberto Fernandez.

Regarding the collection, linked to the fiscal balance, Motyl added: “In this way, local economic activity is reduced and the Government’s collection falls. We are seeing this today. in fact, the collection went well, in part, due to the dollars of the export sector in the face of a favorable wind from the external sector and the soybean dollar I and II ignited the collection last year. However, in the last month we see that the improvement is being affected by the drought”.

The economist warned that the aforementioned we must add the stagnation of the activity registered in the last months due to the difficulties that companies have to access the foreign exchange necessary to import inputs and carry out their economic activities. “This will affect employment and therefore wages.”.

“In summary, a drop in collection is expected in the coming months. As long as and as long as we do not solve the deficit with a reduction in public spending, we do not see strong growth in tax revenue. quite the opposite, what they celebrate responds more to a favorable change from the outside than to local policies”, assures Motyl.

The economic projects that were not debated in the Extraordinary Sessions

For the economist there is a diagnostic error on the part of the Executive, since the deficit is solved “lowering spending and guaranteeing a path of predictability in expenditures that do not exceed income. Not with more state regulations that reduce tax evasion. More and more is spent and less is collected”.

agricultural sector

On this axis, the president said: “The exports of the sector during 2022 were record. More than 142 million tons of cereals, oilseeds and other crops are produced. In the 2021-2022 campaign, the planted area was more than 42 million hectares, a historical record. Productive growth in beef and pork was also increased, reaching levels never seen before”.

“Records were set despite the government, not thanks to its policies. These records were achieved even with export duties, exchange rate gap and restrictions to exports of corn, wheat and meat,” he explained to this outlet. david miazochief economist of the Agricultural Foundation for the Development of Argentina (FADA).

“It should be made clear that no large agricultural country in the world it does not have any of the three anti-export policies. Neither Uruguay, Paraguay, Brazil, the United States, Australia, New Zealand, nor Ukraine”, predicted Miazzo.

“In the records recorded by the president Much had to do with prices, both the cycle of increases that began at the end of 2020as the impulse of the first half of last year that will end the Russia-Ukraine warwhich explained a part of the 2022 liquidation record”, he pointed out.

foreign trade

“The commercial exchange (exports plus imports) increased during 2022 by 20.4% compared to the previous year. The trade balance appeared a surplus of almost seven billion dollars. Foreign sales increased by 13.5%. We are facing a historical record“, saying Fernandez about

The president emphasized that if exports are analyzed by large items: “The rise of Manufactures of Industrial Origin (MOI) stands out, which grew compared to 2021, 15.8% and are the highest since 2013 while those of agricultural origin. “At the same time we had a record of imports” Fernández concluded on this aspect.

An exogenous fact supports the president’s data

Marcelo Elizondo, specialist in international business and President of the Argentina office of the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC), Match with David Miazzo in what the war in ukraine promoted the data presented this afternoon by the president.

With respect to exports what the president says is true. Both exports and imports registered an absolute record. Never has Argentina exported and imported so much in dollars”, the trade expert began by explaining.

In the case of exports due to higher international pricesthat is, in physical volumes in 2022, Argentina did not sell more than in 2021. It’s more, dispatched 2% less, but because of the war in Ukrainea, especially, commodities cost much more, therefore, a record was reached even increasing without volumes”, he added.

The Government evaluates a more generous exchange in pesos

“So what the president says is true, but it is also true that there was an exogenous fact that gave rise to that result”, he commented in dialogue with PROFILE.

“In the case of imports it is similar, since Argentina exports a large number of products whose prices are international and there was also a large increase in energy imports which also presented an increase in prices. That is to say, what the president said is not wrongbut do not include in the references that the main factor is exogenous. International prices rose because of the war, but not because Argentina has dispatched more physical volume in quantityElizondo concluded.

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