The US economy remains strong

During the last quarter of 2024, the US economy grew at an annual rate of 2.3%, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This expansion was below the expected 2.6% and represented a slowdown from the 3.1% increase seen in the previous quarter.

Primary Factors of Economic Expansion

Growth in the last quarter was mainly propelled by rises in consumer expenditures and government spending. Household consumption, a crucial part of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), stayed strong, indicating ongoing consumer activity. Government expenses also played a positive role, with significant growth in federal and state spending.

Quarterly Comparison Analysis

The growth rate of 2.3% in the fourth quarter marks the most sluggish quarterly expansion since 2018, when the economy saw a 0.6% increase in the final quarter. Annually, the economy expanded by 2.8% in 2024, slightly under the 2.9% growth achieved in 2023.

The 2.3% growth rate in Q4 represents the slowest quarterly expansion since 2018, when the economy grew by 0.6% in the fourth quarter. On an annual basis, the economy grew by 2.8% in 2024, slightly below the 2.9% growth recorded in 2023.

Varios factores influyeron en la desaceleración del crecimiento en el último trimestre:

• Reduction in Investment: A downturn in investment activities partially counteracted the benefits from consumer and government expenditure.
• Trade Factors: Imports saw a decline in this time frame, which, though a negative in GDP calculation, suggests possible changes in local demand and global supply chain modifications.

Presiones Inflacionarias e Implicaciones Políticas

Inflationary Pressures and Policy Implications

Persistent inflation remains a concern, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising to 2.9% in December 2024. This uptick in inflation has led economists to adjust their forecasts, anticipating continued price pressures in the coming year. The Federal Reserve faces the challenge of balancing efforts to control inflation without stifling economic growth.

Labor Market Overview

Perspectivas para 2025

Outlook for 2025

Looking ahead, the economic outlook for 2025 presents a mixed picture:

• Growth Projections: The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects a moderation in economic growth, with GDP expected to increase by 1.9% in 2025, down from an estimated 2.3% in 2024.
• cbo.gov
• Inflation Expectations: Economists anticipate that inflation will remain above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, influenced by factors such as ongoing supply chain disruptions and policy decisions.
• reuters.com
• Policy Considerations: Proposed tariffs and stricter immigration policies could exert additional inflationary pressures and impact labor market dynamics, necessitating careful monitoring and policy adjustments.