The period 2023-2027 will most likely be the hottest ever recorded, due to the impact of greenhouse gases and the El Niño weather phenomenon, which are causing an increase in temperatures, warned the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
“There is a 98% probability that at least one of the next five years, and the five years as a whole, will be the hottest ever recorded”declared the WMO.
This specialist from the United Nations also estimated in a 66% probability that the average annual temperature of the Earth’s surface will exceed pre-industrial levels by 1.5 °C for at least one of those five years.
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The Paris climate accords (2015) set the goal of limiting the increase in global temperatures this century to below 2°C, relative to pre-industrial levels from 1850 to 1900, or to 1.5°C to the extent as possible.
The data published on Wednesday “they do not mean that we will permanently exceed the 1.5°C threshold of the Paris Agreement, which refers to long-term warming over several years”said WMO Secretary General Petteri Taalas.
“However, WMO is sounding the alarm by announcing that we will exceed the 1.5 °C level temporarily and more frequently“, he added.
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“We need to be prepared”
“An El Niño event is expected in the coming months and this, combined with human-induced climate change, will cause global temperatures to rise to levels never reached“, affirmed this specialist of the climate. “This will have important repercussions on health, food security, water management and the environment. We need to be prepared,” he reiterated.
El Niño is a natural climatic phenomenon generally associated with an increase in temperatures, increased drought in certain parts of the world and heavy rains in others. It last occurred in 2018-2019 and gave way to a particularly long episode of almost three years of La Niña, which causes opposite effects and in particular a drop in temperatures.
Beginnings of May, WMO estimated that there was a 60% chance that El Niño would develop at the end of July and an 80% chance that it would develop at the end of September. Typically, El Niño causes global temperatures to rise the year after it arrives, i.e. 2024 for this cycle.
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Despite the dampening effect of La Niña, the last eight years were the hottest on record and 2016 stops the record. Greenhouse gases – the main three are CO2, methane and nitrous oxide – concentrating at record levels in the atmosphere, trap heat and cause temperatures to rise.
“Global average temperatures are projected to continue to rise, moving further and further away from the climate to which we are accustomed,” he said. Leon Hermanson, British Meteorological Service expert scientistthe Met Office, an agency that plays a role as WMO’s main center for annual and decadal climate forecasts.
This year, the forecasts, which start at the end of 2022, come from 145 members and were supplied by 11 institutes. “Confidence in global average temperature forecasts is high, as past forecasts show that all measurements are reliable,” the WMO noted.
Global mean land and sea surface temperatures have been observed since the 1960s. By 2023 they are forecast to be above the 1991-2020 average in almost all regions except Alaska, South Africa, South Asia and parts of the world. Australia, according to the WMO.
On the other hand, the WMO doesn’t work out that parts of the South Pacific Ocean are likely to be colder than average.
afp
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