After the preliminary agreement reached with the International Monetary Fund, the Government advanced with the request of the international organization and carried out a partial devaluation, in addition to formalizing some measures, among them raise the value of the dollar and implement a new agricultural dollar.
this Monday, the parallel currency returned to operate in frank rise and hit a new mark with the who earned a cumulative raise of $60 in the past 11 days, and $209, since the beginning of the year.
Sergio Massa: “Since September no regional economy will pay withholdings”
At the beginning of the week, and after the announcements by Minister Sergio Massa that sought to bring peace of mind by reaching an agreement with the International Monetary Fund, he informal market showed high volatility and reached the unprecedented record of $550 (after adding $22 since the opening), something that analysts have been discounting, beyond the fact that an agreement was reached with the IMF, partly due to the strong volatility shown by this small market where variations are -quickly- exposed and also due to the devaluation that puts a new floor in prices.
This is how he explained it to PROFILE andres reschini Delaware F2Solutions, by indicating: “It could happen that there is some moment of relaxation in the pressure, but anyway I do not see it in a panic level to the blue dollar; with which I think that, beyond some downward variation, it will continue to climb forward, “she anticipated.
For his part, Natalia Motil explained to PROFILE that “The new measures are a kind of devaluation that put a floor on all dollars,” and added that “today the signal of maintaining a backward exchange rate is totally unsustainable, which is why the dollarization of portfolios has accelerated.”
Blue dollar today: minute by minute of the price of this Monday, July 24, 2023
Among other things, Motyl said: “The market discounts that there will be a higher price rise due to higher costs and tries to cover itself by demanding more foreign currency“He said and was in charge of overtaking:” It is very likely that the gap will widen in the coming days. Besidess, the goal of the differential exchange rate is an indicator that many dollars will not arrive more than for U$ 60 million per day of intervention. Today everything is a sign that the correction of the exchange rate can take place before the elections,” he concluded.
For his part, for Salvador Di Stefano, an agreement with the IMF reassures the market: “we won’t see a run into alt dollars, but this may impact future inflation. I think the scenario will be between recessionary and inflationary, many prices will rise and consumption will decrease,” he said.
Regarding the possibility of a strong jump in the northern currency, he said: “EThe plan that is being studied is very recessive and would affect consumption. For the alternative dollars to rise, money is needed, and here we are increasing the tax burden by 0.8% of GDP. I don’t know if we are clear about this part of the agreement, ”she questioned.
The STEP, uncertainty and the IMF
Jose Maria Segura, Chief Economist and Partner at PWC explained to PROFILE that according to his look, the market discounted some type of agreement with the IMF and so? it could be seen in the price of the bonds that did not fall and coming somehow recovering.
“now, the agreement that was reached does not give fire power to the Central Bank as to avoid or arm themselves against what traditionally happens in electoral processes, which is a transfer of portfolios from pesos to dollarss, that is, a dollarization of portfolios. And in a way, that’s what we probably expect to happen in the interim until the election process is over,” he said.
For the economist, “what you have to wait for is that until the general elections there will be some kind of volatility. Part of it has to do with the correction, although the exchange rate adjusted this month, it came a little behind what inflation was,” he said. Regarding the blue, he explained that “somehow it is recovering some of that terrain and part is the volatility of the uncertainty of the electoral process that does not mean that it always goes up, but that we will probably see exacerbated in what remains of the process,” completed.
dollar values today
it is worth remembering that at the beginning of the wheel it opened $528, and after the first operations, at 3:30 p.m. it touched a new all-time high of $550 per sale. for his partthe MEP dollar operates at $497.86 for the purchase and $498.04 for the sale.
He dollar counted with settlement (CCL) is located on the blackboards $530.85 for purchase and $542.60 for sale.
He risk country is an indicator developed by the JP Morgan which measures the difference that US Treasury bonds pay against those of the rest of the countries.
This monday july 24 This index places the country risk at 2,021 basis points.
The IMF supported the government’s measures: “They are positive for strengthening reserves”
During the closing of the previous week, the blue dollar had reached $529 and the Central Bank lost foreign currency again with the sale of dollars and yuan.
It is worth remembering that in the last few hours The Government announced a devaluation of the saving dollar of 10%, to equate it with the solidarity exchange rate and card and shrinks, at least by one, the range of dollars, one of the requests of the IMF.
In this way, the 900,000 people who bought an average of US$150 per month will go from paying an exchange rate of $464.47 -which they paid until Friday- to $492.63.
Economy Minister Sergio Massa stressed that an agreement was reached with the IMF for the “next five months” for which reason “the discussion about the Monetary Fund is taken out of the campaign.” The official announced that there will be “heavy disbursements in August and November, which will largely cover the obligations for this year.”
On the other hand, the head of the Palacio de Hacienda clarified that he does not plan to travel to Washington, as was speculated, because the Economy envoys “did a great job to close everything.”
bonuses up
In the case of Argentine bonds abroad, as Bloomberg explains, They rose to their highest level in almost six months.ses after the International Monetary Fund and government officials said on Sunday they were close to reaching an agreement to reformulate the nation’s $44 billion lending program.
The bonds due 2030 rose 0.7 cents to almost 35 cents on the dollar, its highest level since early February. Securities due 2041 followed, up 0.8 cent to 33 cents on the dollar. Both bonds were among the best performers in an index of emerging market sovereign bonds on Monday.
LR
