Larreta prevails over Bullrich in the internal according to a survey

46 days after the closing of the lists and 96 of the primaries, a new survey carried out in the Buenos Aires province picked up good numbers for Horacio Rodriguez Larreta and I locate Diego Santilli as the preferred candidate for governor in a heads-up against Axel Kicillof. Even without a defined candidate, La Libertad Avanza positioned itself as the second force in a scenario together with the current governor of Buenos Aires and Cristian Ritondo.

The consultant’s survey isonomy that he allowed the environment of the Head of Government to transcend, places him in a preferential position over Bullrich, the first electoral obstacle that he will have to face if he plans to reach the Casa Rosada in December. is voting intentionthe Head of Government restricted 19.2% against 10.4% of the former Minister of Security.

At this point, however, one thing must be saved: the poll was carried out days before Alberto Fernández declined to run for a second term, to the point that his figure was second behind sergio masa (14.4% against 10.5% of the Head of State). However, there are no indications that this vote for the President could result in a flight to Juntos por el Cambio, but rather in a distribution among the possible pre-candidates of the Frente de Todos. Among the Frenteto options, the Minister of the Interior, Eduardo “Wado” De Pedro, also appears, with a floor of 4.2%.

Another outstanding fact is the primacy of the figure of Javier Milei in the face of the fragmentation proposed by the primaries in the two majority coalitions. As the only candidate of La Libertad Avanza, the deputy completely drives the intention to vote and is located first in the table of the presidential elections. The candidate of the Left Front, Myriam Bregman, collected only 1.9% of the endorsements according to Isonomía.

Image, management and credibility: three elements that solve Larreta and Together for Change

Consultants from different perspectives repeat over and over again that the level of a candidate’s positive image does not, however, translate into voting intention. A clear example is what happened in 2015 with Mauricio Macri, whom some results described as a furious red of negativity but in December he took the presidential baton.

However, the measurement of the image indicates what society perceived about the national applicants. According to the isonomy survey, the top five was made up of Rodríguez Larreta (+39.4% and -53.6%), Bullrich (+36% and -55.9%), Milei (+34.6% and -55.2%), Massa (+ 33.7% and -60.7%) and Cristina Fernández de Kirchner (+32.2% and -67.1%).

There is a fact that goes through all the polls and that is that politicians have more than 50% negative image. This reflects the boredom and disbelief that, among other factors, fuel the “anti-caste” and “anti-political” figure of Milei, who has made radicalization his main banner.

In the credibility ranking, Rodríguez Larreta also prevails with 34.2% endorsements. Beyond its preeminence, the statistic is highly positive for the entire cambiamite coalition: Bullrich is second on the list with 29.8% credibility in her figure. The third is Milei with 28.2%. In the ruling party, the only one that occupies a place in the table is Cristina Kirchner (27.6%) since she is followed by María Eugenia Vidal, who gave up being a candidate, with 24.8%. Finally, Macri is located with 17.1%. The six leaders add up to more than one 60% disbeliefa higher percentage than the negative image.

Finally, in the management evaluation, Horacio Rodríguez Larreta was qualified positively by 44.8% of those consulted and negatively by 38.7%, while 16.5% did not know if their administration in the city of Buenos Aires is good or bad. On the side of the Frente de Todos, the figures of Axel Kicillof and Alberto Fernández were measured. In the case of the Buenos Aires governor, it was approved by 33.3%, while the President had 22.2%.

Floors, ceilings and competition stages

While the candidacies to govern the largest territory in the country are being defined in the Frente de Todos, Juntos por el Cambio and La Libertad Avanza, Isonomía proposed two possible scenarios with different formulas.

In the first of them, Axel Kicillof prevailed with 29.6%, leaving Diego Santilli in second place (24.8%) and “Milei’s candidate” with 20%. This point is interesting: it is still unknown who will represent the libertarian party in the Buenos Aires competition and from space they repeat that the candidacies are not being discussed. However, the clock is ticking and the closing of lists in June hastens any planning. So far, the only feasible thing is that Milei will share the formula with the deputy Victoria Villarruel.

The second field of dispute also places the current governor in first place (29.2%) but this time followed by the votes that Milei’s candidate can gather (23.6%). If the figure of Together for Change is Cristian Ritondo, who after Vidal’s withdrawal approached Patricia Bullrich to tone up his candidacy, the drop in voting intentions is notable: it falls to 13.6%.

What does the survey say that the Frente de Todos looks at and worries Juntos por el Cambio in the Province of Buenos Aires

Finally, Isonomía proposes a final electoral battle between Santilli and Kicillof measuring the floors and ceilings of each one. In this kill Kill the election turns to the opposition side: the deputy adds 40.2% against 33% of the former Minister of Economy of Cristina Kirchner.

It still remains to be seen, however, when the provincial leader will be launched. “In the case of the province of Buenos Aires, we have spoken with mayors and today I am going to meet with unions and social organizations. The request is permanent and I am obviously available for this task. This is not a release, but it is the natural”, he assured days ago before the consultation. Santilli, for his part, already threw himself in February. Added to this is the possibility of splitting the provincial elections from the national ones, a discussion that is once again part of the agenda.

The survey was conducted between March 20 and April 3 in person, with a sample size of 1,800 cases. The margin of error was +/- 2.3%.

PROFILE contacted Isonomía to have a more complete look at the study, but at the end of this note, there was no response.

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