The votes for Milei definitely the choice

The campaign began and we are already filled with ads on TV, radio and networks, but although the formulas are more than ten, the uncertainty centers on the dynamics of three brands, four candidates, the blank vote and the electoral abstention.

Communicationally the four try to define their position, Patricia: “The force of Change”, Milei: “Build a different country”, Larreta: “This country can be fixed”, Massa: “Management capacity to take care of you”. As we can see, there are three proposals for change and a proposal to resume the path, doing the things that were not done.

Spots are the visible part of a campaign. There we can see the intentions. The one from Unión por la Patria tries to speak to the workers with emphasis on the most submerged, telling them “I know you suffered, in the next stage I will take care of you”.

Milei is one of the most complete, he speaks at the same time about new values ​​and addresses those who feel disappointed by the caste, he challenges the humble and the young; she proposes to attack inflation and insecurity.

One of the doubts is about presenteeism before an electorate tired of the leaders

Patricia focuses on order and security, change or nothing. Her objective is to block Larreta’s passage. This one has the most marketable spot, she talks to everyone, but defines little. It is no coincidence that when we analyze the profiles of the head of government he does not stand out in any. Strange that someone who served as the Executive of the Capital for eight years is not considered the most capable. Firmness and decision accompanied by management capacity and social sensitivity are the attributes most valued by voters.

Patricia is considered Firm to deal with security, period. Milei would be Firm, Able to deal with inflation and with some degree of social sensitivity. Massa is perceived as Capable and Concerned about the daily problems of the electorate, including the economy. This is how the pieces are arranged.

Each candidate has a path through which to develop. Massa emerges as a competitive candidate, because while Kirchnerism and Peronism in the interior work to get the vote of the poorest sectors, he can speak to the lower middle class. In order for Peronism to have competitive possibilities, it not only has to get the vote of those who have nothing, but also has to win within the social sectors that fight not to fall and have aspirations to live like the middle and upper middle sectors. Whoever wins over the lower middle class wins the elections and is the one that Massa spoke to historically in 2013/2015/2017. He is the one we must look to.

A present that refers to the past

The vast majority of the lower middle class is in a dependency relationship or is autonomous, but being integrated into the system does not guarantee that they will not fall into poverty. And there the minister has the problem of inflation. But the advantage is that there is work and that it is an electorate that does not like proposals of the type “change everything and while I solve things fix yourself as you can”. Here the fight of Peronism is not with Cambiemos, it is with Milei.

The Bullrich-Milei fight is costing them both votes and image points. They not only differ by their projects, they also do not fish in the same fishbowl. Patricia takes votes from the pure PRO, while Larreta has fewer votes within the hard core and takes votes from Alberto and Lavagna 2019. But the one to watch carefully is Milei, who by presence or absence will be the great protagonist.

Milei remains high in the polls because she takes a sector of votes that come from both Cambiemos and Peronism. And who can Massa steal votes from? Both Larreta and Milei. If Massa manages to get the votes for Alberto 2019 back to the original trunk, he would take advantage. And he would leave the problem to Cambiemos, the main concern for the libertarian, since the majority of his votes come from there. The big question in all this is how many Milei will end up getting. The libertarian is the great unknown, because he has serious problems of political armament. The complaints and rumors do not make a dent in his voters for now.

conflicting alliances

The issue is who works their ticket, who talks to the neighbors. Their problem is not in the big cities, there the representatives go to the dark room alone, their problem is in the Conurbano and the provincial interiors where the local referents have weight.

There is more than one province and municipality where you cannot present candidates. That is why three thirds are in the polls, but it is difficult to know if they will be at the polls. If they are, it will be the great figure. And if not, the percentage difference between the coalitions and whether or not there is a second round depends on their wealth.

The other question is about presenteeism before an electorate tired of the leaders and who have already learned that the PASS for them, it’s just a big poll.

*Consultant and political analyst.