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Continued from yesterday: new social contract

about him new social contract, title of yesterday’s column, a friend wrote me the following: “Your note is very good, but I think that part of the problem is that with the eventual weakening of Cristina, the opposition of Together for Change may not have a single program for the country. In that sense, 2015 was easier for Cambiemos”, when Macri was the undisputed boss. And he added: “If it is assumed, like a good part of both coalitions, that“ the other is absolute evil ”, there is no possible contract. The shock is to destroy evil forever, destroy that other evil. Therefore, the shock is undemocratic in its nature. “The hegemonic tie, according to Juan Carlos Portantiero (still a Gramoscian), appears for the first time in 1977 in the Revista Mexicana de Sociologia”.

That year, 1977, was the most sweeping of the illegal repression during the last dictatorship, the National Reorganization Process, which embodied anti-Peronist hegemony in its anti-democratic form in response –unjustified– to the also anti-democratic aspiration of Peronist/revolutionary hegemony also embodied militarily in the guerrilla organizations.

Hawks propose shock therapy and initials ‘blood, sweat and tears’

Today the hegemonic dispute develops democratically between two coalitions that are structured around the Peronist/anti-Peronist signifier (very empty if there are any), being a part of the opposition coalition, Together for Change, which persists in the idea of ​​doubling the other, under certain (to be fair, not total) inspiration from The shock doctrine of the Canadian Naomi Klein widely developed in the preceding column. And, conversely, the ruling coalition, weakened, is the one that proposes ideas such as a table between the ruling party and the opposition to discuss how to resolve the foreign debt, or ten basic points of agreement.

With Sergio Massa as Minister of the Economy (Claudio Lozano –even from within the Frente de Todos– described it as “Kirchnerism, the Menemist phase”), Christianity no longer defends markedly heterodox economic banners. And the leaders who have the possibility of representing that space as a presidential candidate could perfectly understand with also moderate economists from Together for Change. But the problem is that there are two Together for Change: that of Macri-Patricia Bullrich, who proposes shock therapy, and that of most of the radicals (Morales, Manes, Lousteau) with an imaginary real Rodríguez Larreta that would be different. to the one that appears in the speeches of the last months lasting and biased to the right, supposedly to compete with the hawks.

Also in the Frente de Todos there was the same internal division between hawks and doves typical of the PRO and to a large extent the controversies of these three years of the ruling party are due to it. But the obsolescence of certain ideas, the fatigue of materials that afflicts the vice president’s biology and the lack of an heir to match her were resolving the internal economic dispute in favor of the “orthodox”. The anti-Christian Gabriel Rubinstein of the Vice Minister of Economy would be unimaginable without the previous process of obscuring the reformist impetus of La Cámpora, also aged.

La Pampa opens the electoral calendar with the first PASO and beyond the confrontation of Together for Change united by the sum of its different candidates against the total of those of the Frente de Todos, anticipating as a great electoral poll what would be an election to president, the PASO will allow the PRO to measure forces on the one hand and the radicals on the other, then imposing the winner what will be the line to follow.

Larreta seems to listen to Duran Barba, for whom a recessive speech is “pianta votes”

But when they are the national STEP and it is necessary to choose presidential candidates, there the radicalismo and the PRO would mix. Now that Alfredo Cornejo will contest the governorship of Mendoza, it is speculated that Patricia Bullrich’s running mate could be the radical Cordovan Rodrigo De Loredo while the hypothesis of Gerardo Morales as Horacio Rodríguez Larreta’s running mate is maintained.

When Patricia Bullrich is asked if “gradualism or shock”, she answers without waiting: “shock”, and her chief economist, Luciano Laspina, who six months ago bet a piglet on three-digit inflation by 2022, is Who else talks about the bomb (“Massa lengthens the fuse and enlarges the bomb”). While when Rodríguez Larreta is asked about the existence of a bomb, he responds by downplaying the future by saying that “the bomb is what is happening now”, that is, the future has a non-recessive adjustment.

The possibility of drafting a new social contract grows or decreases depending on who are the presidential candidates who succeed in the PASO. May is the deadline to define who will compete and August will be the D-Day that will open the cycle of the next four years in Argentina.